Aussie economy...

[FST4RD]

Is it really as bad as the media makes out?
I think here in NZ that the media is blowing it out of proportion to be honest. I still earn the same, have job security, house is safe, still spend the same amount as I always do....
I'm thinking I might move back to Melbourne early next year but watching the news and saying that there are ten's of thousands of aussies and kiwis fleeing to NZ cause of lack of jobs makes me think...
They say people are getting laid off all over the show but this is what I think:
Media blows things out of proportion, people get worried and start saving their money, businesses have less income because of media hype and have to lay off people to stay viable, vicious circle!

Also in Victoria do you obey the right turn rule or the left turn rule? Ie you come to a uncontrolled intersection and you want to turn right and someone is coming the opposite direction and wants to turn left into the same way who gives way?

[groupAralliart]

spot on with your thoughts on the economy. Those with secure jobs simply have a heap more money as the interest rates have halved and most items are at discounted prices. I am lucky and have a good secure job. I am grabbing a few bargains as I think the economy will start growing again by September/ December. The US has started and we will follow a lot quicker than we have followed it on the down hill run. We will just have to wait and see. 500 Qantas jobs gone: media hypes it up like it is half the bloody workforce. Truth is the smart companies are stream lining and purging costs while they can morally justify their moves. Get qualified and make yourself an asset otherwise if you you are 'common' you may find you have a lot of competition for simpler jobs.

[MrBishi]

I work as a designer in heavy industry (refinerys, mines etc) and we are suffering badly. The company I am contracting with has maybe halved the workforce in the Brisbane office and other offices in Australia and overseas are similarly affected. However this industry (and most others that are bleeding) have had incredibly good times in recent years. With high profits there is always the possibility (inevitablity?) for lean times and this is something you need to plan for.
I'm still working (albeit much less) when others are not. I'm lucky - for now...

What industry are you in?

[FST4RD]

At the moment I work for IRD (ATO but for NZ) helping accountants with their issues.... I would deff look at working for the ATO over there... assuming they would have me! :D
I used to work for a websales company in Melbourne before I left, Organiser World on Latrobe street (http://www.ow.com.au/) and used to work for Orange phones before the call center got shipped to India :roll:
And used to be a quality manager in a large company that produced sheepskins. So done a fair bit in the last few years, well different jobs.

I want to live in St Kilda again, that would be a dream, but the only thing is that I would eventually want to bring my dog over... at least there is no quarentine between the 2 countries, although I guess trying to find a rental that will allow animals might be hard...

Hopefully there are a couple Melbourne based people that could help me out for the first couple weeks as well till i'm back on my feet :D

[benny]

those that have money still have it, and those that were just getting on their feet (like me) are out of work again. funny though the exec's are still driving bmw's to work while the lowies are wondering how to pay rent this week :glare:

just thought of a real funny one.. my sons daycare is an ABC center and the lady the runs the center drives a beamer to work still LOL!!!

[WidebodyWoody]

I work as a Games Programmer and the Games Industry World Wide has been hit VERY HARD.

Although we haven't laid a single person off in our company, other companies have either cut staffing, or shut down all together.

Publishers have tightened their belts and are only going with licensed titles, the ones they believe are safe. Some companies dropped about 90% staffing. Funny thing was they advertised only 50% in the media.

THQ the biggest publisher in Australia cut about 2/3rds of their staffing also.

In another area, Mirvac have shut down ALL their offices except for the Sydney one. And they made all the staff redundant. My mate was an architect there. Fortunately he got paid out redundancy pay.

[WANTSOM]

Our company wrote record sales in January and February and we collected 20% more in cash flow in March than anticipated so go figure.

No doubt the recession is there but good businesses will always be good businesses. the ones seeming most affected are like Mr Bishi says the ones that have had extraordinary growth in sales over the past few years and have had to build up to meet the need and now are retracting to follow the decline. that is just normal business cycles.

Steadier businesses seem to be weathering it a little better from what I can see.

I woldnt worry too much about what cars people drive as an indicator of wealth - most of them are leased anyway and at the moment its cheaper to keep paying the lease than dump the car and buy a cheaper one. I have seen millionaires drive some of the rattiest bombs ever and people with not a buck in theor pocket flashing around in Euro luxury (being chased by the repo man I might add) LOL

[FST4RD]

Hmmm seems like a bit of good and bad at the moment....
I don't really care where i work.. I like hard manual labour, i like mentally challenging jobs to... you need to like both when you own a Starion LOL

Also can anyone answer my other question? In Victoria do you obey the right turn rule or the left turn rule? Ie you come to a uncontrolled intersection and you want to turn right and someone is coming the opposite direction and wants to turn left into the same way who gives way?

[thrash]

recession is the word economists use to describe the situation where the rich are losing big time.

In simple terms, what happens in a recession is that those who are earning above a certain threshold (i'm talking in the millions per annum) start to take major hits in how much they are earning. There can be a multitude of reasons.. I believe this time around it was due to too much bad credit floating around.

the average person "would" actually be better off, except for the fact that most of the places that we work happen to be controlled by the rich folk mentioned previously - they start panicking about earning 1 mil instead of 2 mil a year, etc, and so they withdraw investments from here and there, they do budget cuts in companies they control, etc, and this withdraws a heap of funds from the economy, just so they can feel safer and not have to worry about which ferrari they can afford next year.

So.. until this point, it's only the millionaires who are actually "suffering". the companies might still be profitable and making heaps of money, but the budget cuts happen anyway.. for selfish reasons, and this is where it starts affecting us normal folk who earn a normal wage and own a really sexy car.

Then, the media start blowing it up, because the banks are now losing money too (this will take another essay to explain, so i'll leave it for now), and then the average joe who knows nothing about the economy, figures they should spend less to brace themselves for the impact and potential job loss, etc.. and this is when previously profitable companies start going down the tubes, as there are less sales and what not.

This, in turn, causes more investment withdrawal from frightened rich folk, and it becomes a vicious cycle. more money is locked away somewhere (not in the banks as everyone now worries the banks aren't safe either), less money changes hands, which means less goods and services are offered, gross national product (GDP) goes down.. etc etc etc.

If you've studied physics, you know that energy is always there - can't be created or destroyed (except by God, for those of you who believe), only changes form, etc. well.. money is rather similar, in that the general amount is consistent - it only changes hands.. yeah i know, more can be printed etc but it never becomes nothing.. so if some company has lost out due to the recession, that money the left it's coffers has to have gone somewhere.. it hasn't magically dissappeared.. inflation will mean the value of each dollar is less, but the dollars are still around.

meaning.. just because we're in a 'recession' doesn't mean there's less money to go around.. just means it's changing hands quickly.. now is the time to be on the lookout for opportunities to cash in on this money that's floating around.. business opportunities.. cheap investments, etc.

it's obviously a LOT more complex a situation than what i've made it out to be, but that's the very basic gyst of it.

[FST4RD]

I think if the media hadn't have said anything in the first place things would be fine....
This sort of thing happens every now and then...

[RiceThief]

Fst4rd, while the economy is on a downturn, its the scare mongering by the govt that doesnt help confidence. Why do they do that you ask, well by doing so it makes it look like they are doing something when they spend billions of dollars on fiscal policy that is short sighted because its easier to measure short term goals than it is to measure long term goals.

At the moment companies in manufacturing and the building sector are suffering the most as well as those that rely on that industry. Companies are retracting and therefore people are getting layed off and as they are no longer expanding there aren't many projects in the works so business's that do that suffer. Businesses that have good operations and plans will survive and those that are marginal when the economy is good will close down. The sky hasn't fallen in, good companies are still making profits, just less income now and it cost more to make it. The flipside is now you as the consumer have more power and business have to differential themselves from their competitors either through price or better service.

Benny - everyone has lost money, but its all relative, those at the top have lost billions but relative to their whole wealth its only a percentage of their total wealth.

Thrash, as i said everyone is affected, some more than others, you and i are affected through our super, but as i said its all relative. Its not just the rich folk that are pulling there investments, its those in retirement and mum and dad investors who are realising their paper loses to real loses to move their money from investments in super, managed funds and shares into banks because its safe, as the govt has guaranteed bank deposits. Nevermind the fact that they have turned a paper loss into a real loss to lock in their money at low interest rates barely above inflation.

If you want to blame someone its those greedy bastards that sell derivatives and the speculation traders. In their greed they packaged high risk loans such as sub prime mortages as good investments and on sold those investments to superfunds, managed funds, companies and event govts as AAA+ investments (as govt such as the qld govt only invest in low risk investments). Then there are those who are short selling shares to push the price down so that investors get margin calls and need to sell shares because of their margin call which further pushes the price down which in turns puts another investor into a margin call. Personally i think the above two should be tied up by their balls and beated to a long and slow death.

Good news is we still have low interest rates and low inflation and our dollar is low so our exports are more attractive. Anyway thats the end of my rant and im sorry if i wrote too much.

[Vulpes]

I think if the media hadn't have said anything in the first place things would be fine....
This sort of thing happens every now and then...

There is no such thing as a recession, its all a state of mind. Im not saying people dont lose their jobs etc im just saying if people like KRudd stopped talking negative then Johnny Lunchbox would not think " Shit I better not buy that car, or go on that holiday, or do that renovation because things are bad" things are only bad because of this state of mind. The bad times end because people gain confidence and start spending/ gettingthe economy moving. It could be fixed tomorrow if the media and politicians stopped telling people how bad thiings are. Fuel down by 60 cents a litre, mortgage payments down on average by 400 month. house prices down for the young people by around 20%. How good do people want things to get ?

[WANTSOM]

Rice Thief wrote:

If you want to blame someone its those greedy bastards that sell derivatives and the speculation traders. In their greed they packaged high risk loans such as sub prime mortages as good investments and on sold those investments to superfunds, managed funds, companies and event govts as AAA+ investments (as govt such as the qld govt only invest in low risk investments). Then there are those who are short selling shares to push the price down so that investors get margin calls and need to sell shares because of their margin call which further pushes the price down which in turns puts another investor into a margin call. Personally i think the above two should be tied up by their balls and beated to a long and slow death.

That is what happened in a nutshell. :beer

Vulpes, I agree - what is needed is some business and consumer confidence to get the ball rolling again. :beer

[thrash]

hahahahaha vulpes said in a couple of lines what took me half a book. shame on me and my rants rofl

[enthuzed]

It's mostly market sentiment. Thank you broadcasters and newspapers... :glare: